Many people throughout the nation are
saying that the Democrats are now at a disadvantage in the House and
Senate, and that they "lost" in the 2014 Midterm Elections.
Though the Democratic party may have lost more seats, and though
Republicans now control the House and Senate, I still think the
Democrats have come out on top. Over the past decade there has been a
massive shift on social issues that have created a small schism in
the Republican party between their more traditional members and their
youth. This post will look at a few things in relation to this
statement. First we will examine the validity of that statement,
represented through studies and polls, analysis of articles, and the
Republican angle this past election. Second, we will discuss some
reasons this change may have taken place, ranging from the influence
of the Supreme Court to American perception of rights and liberties.
Finally, we will discuss the implications of the new Republican, and
what this means for our 2014 elected officials and the 2016
Elections.
The youth of each generation have
always been more progressive and liberal. In the 60's they were the
"hippies" and in the 80's they listened to music that only
made the older generation cringe. In the new millennium the youth
have taken on social issues through politics. The Pew Research Center
finds that between 1994 and 2014 the average voter went from leaning
to default on the Republican side in 1994, over to about an equally
likely to vote for a Democrat by the end of the 20 year spani.
Moreover, in a different article Jocelyn Kiley notes that among the
youngest generation of voters (Millennials) there is an overwhelming
support for liberal values at near 60% of the groups populationii.
These numbers are representative of the average American's standing
in the age group. In order to get a more relevant picture to our
discussion, we should examine polling trends within the Republican
party. The New York Times reported in 2012 a 9% jump, up to 37%, in
support for marriage equality from Millennials who identify as
Republicansiii.
The article furthers that young leaders are either avoiding or
expressing compromise on issues such as abortion and marriage
equality due to the divided opinions, leading to an open door for the
Democratic party to push forward on these issues. Eric Dolan,
managing editor of Raw Story magazine noted that young Republicans
tend to underestimate their liberal attitudes on social issues,
showing ultimately an overall trend to be more accepting of socially
liberal views in Americaiv.
The Republican party distanced itself from its more extreme
representatives this election cycle, allowing them to take a more
centrist platform and ultimately bring out results in the Midterm
Elections.
The Republican Party this past cycle
had many campaigns that emphasized some type of compromise, whether
explicitly or implicitly. The party had nominees that supported
same-sex marriage, the right to choose, and measures to fight global
warming that restrict businesses. The Sun Times even puts forth that
major names, such as Governor Chris Christie, is calling on House
Republicans to embrace compromisev.
This exemplifies the Party's acknowledgement that in order to truly
gain national support they must maintain behavior that falls in line
with the platform they just won on. Over the past decade many voters
from key demographics, such as youth and minority, have been
disenfranchised by the Republican Party for reasons such as a lack of
compromise on bills that affect them. This is the Republican leaders
calling for compromise to occur and secure those votes. They are
embracing certain liberal values, or at least tolerating them, as the
country takes an overall shift towards that idealistic value set on
social issues. We should examine some reasons as to why American
values have shifted in this direction.
Arguably the biggest Supreme Court case
of this century happened within its first year. On December 12 of the
year 2000 the Supreme Court stopped being an unbiased arbitrator and
interpreter of the American Constitution and became a political
machine to decide political atmosphere in the American public. On a
5-4 decision the Supreme Court of the United States awarded the
Presidential office to Republican Nominee George W. Bush over his
Democratic counterpart, former Vice President Al Gore. After this
overwhelming display of conservatism on the court, it then took a
very liberal stance over the next decade, with two of its more
conservative members being so disenfranchised by the Bush
administration that they became key figures in setting the liberal
atmosphere of today. Justice Sandra Day O'Connor was already showing
strides of liberalism, such as her opinion in Planned Parenthood
v. Casey (1992), however Jeffrey
Toobin notes that her dissatisfaction with the Bush administration's
performance in office and its handling of the Bush v. Gore
(2000) case, sent her in a full blown progressive slidevi.
After playing a decisive role in the 2000 case, Justice Anthony
Kennedy also slipped from his conservative mindset to being a much
more progressive, very liberal voice on the court. He is accredited
with making large strides to integrate international laws and ruling
into landmark decisions. Most notably, Kennedy heavily relied on both
precedents set by the British Parliament and the European Court of
Human Rights in deciding Lawrence v. Texas (2003)vii.
O'Connor has spoken publicly to affirm her use of foreign law in
interpreting our own Constitution, and even refers to opinions she
concurred on which ruled with the use of foreign law, such as Atkins
v. Virginia (2002)viii.
The use of foreign law was widely condemned by conservatives, and
usually ended up deciding cases in favor of ideals that were shared
with the Democratic Party. These cases early on seemed to pave way
for national social precedent that is most relevant in the millennial
voter body.
When
examining when landmark cases such as Lawrence v. Texas,
Planned Parenthood v. Casey,
or Grutter v. Bollinger
(2003) they all supported decisions that then became noticeably more
popular across the country in years to come. Lawrence v.
Texas not only supported a right
to privacy, but was also used as a crucial referential source in the
fight for marriage equality, most recently in the Supreme Courts
decision in United State v. Windsor
(2013) which struck down Section 3 of the 1996 Defense of Marriage
Act. This court decision had widespread support across the nation,
specifically in youth groups. Planned Parenthood v. Casey
set a precedent on abortion rights that has become a key talking
point for the feminist collective on women's rights in their fight
for equality. Grutter v. Bollinger
(also an opinion written by Justice O'Connor) was a large affirmation
of affirmative action. These cases, and others influenced or reliant
on them, set precedents for the liberal atmosphere amongst the youth
that grew up with them as law. In their most developmental years, the
Millennial Generation not only heard cases on controversial issues
that were easily identifiable with a political party, but they saw
that time and time again these issues were decided in favor of the
more liberal view point. The Supreme Court made an effort to set a
standard for what human rights and the pursuit of happiness are with
the broadest scope possible in order to cater to the needs of a
diverse nation. It almost inherently makes sense that a nation
composed of immigrants, a spectrum of colors, beliefs, and sexual
orientations, would draw on other nations and public atmosphere to
decide their cases, as ultimately our country is a microcosm of the
world's beliefs. The world turns to our precedent when they have
legal question or ambiguity on issues of such high profile, and as a
member of an international community it only seems logical we take
the same course of action.
The
political atmosphere has changed in the past two decades. We have
watched a party begin to change this election cycle from a party
staunch on its conservative ideals to one that caters slightly more
to public opinion. The new Republicans had a noticeable pull this
election, either winning seats or at the very least gaining
widespread media cover. The platform that was appealed to was one
that was moderate. This sets expectations for our newly elected
officials for positions on social issues, and for compromise across
party lines. Its no secret that Americans are holistically
disenfranchised from politics, with voter turnout decreasing with
each passing year. It's our current leaders jobs to re-inspire
American faith in our government. If Republicans are smart they will
hold to their new platform if they want a legitimate bid at the
Presidential office in 2016 and stick to their moderate platform.
This moderation won majority control this election cycle, but if the
whole party had to make a shift, and sacrifice some ideals to gain
those seats, it seems to me that the Democratic party ideals won out
overall.
iPew
Research Center, “Political Polarization in the American Public”
Pew Research Center. June 12,
2014. http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/appendix-a-the-ideological-consistency-scale/#
iiKiley,
Jocelyn and Dimock, Michael. “The GOP’s Millennial problem runs
deep” September 25,
2014. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/25/the-gops-millennial-problem-runs-deep/
iiiSaulny,
Susan. “Young G.O.P. Erase the Lines on Social Issues” New York
Times. August 8,
2012. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/us/politics/young-republicans-erase-lines-on-social-issues.html
ivDolan,
Eric W. "Study finds young Republicans are more liberal than
the think" Raw Story. June 17, 2013.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/06/study-finds-young-republicans-are-more-liberal-than-they-think/
vSun
Times Wires. “Christie calls on House GOP to embrace compromise”
Sun Times. November 17,
2014. http://politics.suntimes.com/article/washington/christie-calls-house-gop-embrace-compromise/mon-11172014-323pm
viToobin,
Jeffrey. "The Nine". Anchor Books. 2008.
viiToobin,
Jeffrey. “Swing Shift” The New Yorker. September 12,
2005. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/09/12/swing-shift
viiiSchlafly,
Phyllis "Is Relying on Foreign Law Impeachable?" The
Phyllis Schlafly Report. May
2005. http://www.eagleforum.org/psr/2005/may05/psrmay05.html