The GOP Is No Longer the "Gay Opposition Party"

Rainbow elephants are the up-and-coming image of the Republican party. The party has suffered a backlash regarding an over-conservative image in recent years in a much more "progressive" liberal nationⁱ. In an attempt to get with the times, the GOP recruited former San Diego Councilman Carl DeMaio. The congressional hopeful looks to oust the freshman incumbent from the Democratic party, Scott Peters. This race is interesting not only because the polls have the two candidates at a .4% differenceⁱⁱ, but more so because DeMaio is a self-labelled "new-age" Republican. This identification essentially means a socially liberal, fiscally conservative candidate. The question then becomes how this effects the political landscape for issues that normally are safe-bets for liberals in the district; namely gay marriage.

One of the best ways to evaluate a political landscape is to look at the investment and expenditures from different groups to the candidates or on their behalf. For full disclosure, all the money referenced in this post is retrieved from the Center for Responsive Politic's Open Secrets projectⁱⁱⁱ. Though the incumbent has raised about $300,000 more than the challenger, Peters has spent nearly $150,000 less. Playing issues similarly to the incumbent, DeMaio may actually hurt his long-run ability to gain financial base to match his opponent. He openly supports marriage equality, as well as a woman's right to choose, reform on the affordability of college, campaign finance reform, and general equal rights bills.^{iv v} These issues tend to normally be safe liberal territory, however now the ballot represents two individuals from different parties nearly saying the same thing. The big-money spenders, such as Planned Parenthood, still give some of the largest contributions in the campaign thus far to the liberal incumbent. In the long-run we should keep an eye on the donation behaviors of traditionally conservative groups, such as the National Organization for Marriage. They have donated a small sum to the Republican candidate at just over $6,500 despite DeMaio seeming to not represent any political issue they support. One of the big game-changers in DeMaio's corner is SuperPAC "Responsible Leadership for America". The SuperPAC focuses on issues related to finance and its transparency in relation to campaigns. In the past, it gained national attention from an $11,000,000 donation to the Small Business Action Committee in California during the 2012 election cycle^vi. With $11,000,000 a candidate can generate mobilization campaigns, prime-time ads, billboards, rallies, etc. This goes to show the big-swing impact one player can have in a tight election.

Though its early in the campaigns, the donations have just started to pour in and we have already hit over $2 million on both sides. The voting on issues is a secondary reason to follow this election. We have a candidate who is distancing himself from the party that endorses him, and aligns with his opponent on nearly every major social issue in the state. The spending in this election will be hard to follow because some groups, and implicitly some voters, seem to be disenfranchise from the race entirely. There is no longer a candidate who speaks out against same-sex marriage or pro-life stances, under-representing the "traditional" conservative voice.

DeMaio's strategy also raises questions as to the long-term sustainability of his platform. Though many conservative PACs and social groups will donate to a candidate in the interim, if DeMaio is challenged by a more conservative voice from the party down the line he may struggle to actually be accepted by the base group Republicans that he is currently distancing himself from. The strategy may be a clever political tactic against a liberal in a liberal district, but for DeMaio it is a risky move. It should be no surprise that the GOP is throwing its support in favor of DeMaio; once they control the seat they can support candidates of varying degree of conservatism and still maintain a party's incumbent advantage. A challenger can show all the ideals that don't align with the average republican voter and do some serious damage to DeMaio.

iKraushaar, Josh. "The 10 Most Compelling House Races of 2014". National Journal. May 22, 2014. http://www.nationaljournal.com/against-the-grain/the-10-most-compelling-house-races-of-2014-20140522

iiElliot, Scott. "California 52nd District Election" Election Projection. 2014. http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/california-52nd-district-election.php

iiiThe Center for Responsive Politics. "Summary Data on the 2014 Congressional Race of California District 52." Open Secrets. 2014. https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=CA52

ivDeMaio, Carl. "Other Key Issues". Office of Carl DeMaio. 2014. http://carldemaio.com/issue/other-key-issues

vDeMaio, Carl. "Free to Be Initiative". Office of Carl DeMaio. 2014. http://carldemaio.com/issue/free-be-initiative

viBallotpedia. "Americans for Responsible Leadership." Ballotpedia. 2014. http://ballotpedia.org/Americans_for_Responsible_Leadership