We
accurately predicted the election outcomes for those assigned. We were assigned
the senate races in New Hampshire, Kansas, Kentucky, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois,
New Jersey, New Mexico, Mississippi, West Virginia, Delaware, Idaho, Montana,
South Carolina, Texas, and Wyoming. Many of the races were simple to predict,
as one candidate was projected to win by large margins (as these candidates
were often incumbents, or from states with strong and certain political
leanings).
However, as
noted in our previous post, the more disputed elections’ (those in New
Hampshire, Kansas, Kentucky and Iowa) results were deeply rooted in the affects
of voter turn out as a result of public opinion regarding the president and a
candidate’s ability to successfully connect with the American people.
When races
are close, it call comes down to turn out. In these elections, we analyzed that
the turn out was directly affected by the peoples’ approval of Obama, and how
well these candidates connect with their electorate.
In the Iowa race, Bruce Braley
struggled to effectively connect with his constituents. From the beginning of
the race, Braley was characterized as out of touch with the farmers and common
people of Iowa. Farmers ARE Iowa, and their vote really counts. In the end, Ernst’s
ability to connect with all of the people of Iowa helped her to come out strong
in a fairly close race. Iowa is a swing state, split between affiliates of both
the Republican and Democratic parties. In states like these, how a candidate
connects with the people will greatly influence if and how people vote, as
demonstrated by the outcome of this election.
Executive disapproval can affect
voters in a variety of ways. Disproval of the president can cause general
distaste for the government and broadly lower turn out rates. Or, an unpopular
president can cause members of their own party to walk the party line and
consider the other side. Too, presidential disproval can leave members of the
presidents’ party with a desire to prove their party’s competency despite an
unpopular president, increasing party turn out. It all just depends which
factor of presidential approval plays the largest role in a state. In Kansas, Republican
dislike of Obama motivated the party to vote in favor of increasing the power
of the GOP in congress, to offset the unpopular job of the president.
Republican Pat Roberts beat independent Greg Orman by a very slim margin. Orman
had the potential of picking up all of the democratic votes, as well as
possible independent and undecided votes in a historically swing state, to gain
him the win. However, we contend that Republican turn out in a state with
strong disproval of the president (60%), motivated republican voters to go out
and vote. This, in turn, offset all of the potential votes that Orman would
have had. In Kansas, presidential approval affected turn out in a notable way.
However, the race in New Hampshire
presents an interesting perspective on both of these factors. In fact, both
candidates in New Hampshire were criticized for being out of touch, but for
different reasons: Shaheen was attacked for being too in touch with the whims
of the executive branch (i.e. Obama) and consequently out of touch with the
people, and Brown was criticized for having ran for positions in a variety of
different states, leaving him out of touch and disconnected with the people of
New Hampshire. Shaheen won the senate seat. In this election, there were a
variety of factors notably at stake. New Hampshire has a 53% disapproval rate
of Obama. This could have contributed to Democrat Shaheen’s campaign in a
negative way. However, Brown’s lack of connection proved to be more noteworthy
than Shaheen’s proposed out-of-touch tendencies. Thus, more voters turned out
to vote for an incumbent who may be allegedly out of touch, but at least out of
touch in a familiar way. In New Hampshire, connection with the people, approval
rating, and incumbency had the potential of playing a role in the turn out and
result of the election. But in New Hampshire, connection and incumbency rang
truest.
The New Hampshire election
demonstrates the complexity of elections and voter turn out, and how many
different factors are at stake. In close elections like those, there are so
many factors which can cause the election to swing in either direction. In
predicting these outcomes, we put as much thought and analysis into it as we
could. However, with such a multitude of factors, it truly just comes down to
the luck of the draw. So, I guess we drew right this time.
In the end, our assigned elections
(of which 12 out of 17 were GOP wins) essentially demonstrate the result of the
congressional elections as whole: GOP majority. This ultimate outcome can
affect our country in a variety of ways. Everyone knows that the American
people are sick of congressional dysfunction. This gives Republicans the opportunity
to show that they can get things done in Congress. In turn, a job well done by
Republicans in the capital building, may affect who the American people elect
to inhabit the White House in 2016. Too, this election served as yet another
wake up call for the president. The American people’s elect of a GOP majority
demonstrates that they aren’t happy with the job the Democratic president is
doing (as mentioned above). In fact, Obama was quoted last week saying, “Every election is a moment
for reflection, and I think that everybody in this White House is going to look
and say, all right, what do we need to do differently?” The ramifications of
this election may be huge with regard to how the rest of Obama’s term will be
ran. In fact, the GOP win could affect Obama’s performance in a positive way: perhaps
Obama will reform his outlook and his strategies in a way which better suits the
current desires of the American people. In the end, this change in congress provides
the people with hope—things haven’t been going too well in American politics
lately. Perhaps this change will affect both the legislative and executive
branches in a positive light—the American people have spoken: “we give you
divided government—now prove that you can make it work.” The American people
want to see politicians step up, and maybe the results of this election will help
to make that happen.
"What Will Congress Do With A Republican Majority?" NPR. Accessed November 10, 2014.
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