US House Group 3: Predictions

By Bobby Ottaviano, Alessandra Halperin, and Sean Kenney.

Nebraska

1st:  Jeff Fortenberry (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

2nd: Brad Ashford (D) - Tossup election: A poll shows Republican incumbent Lee Terry as less popular than President Obama in a Republican district. (1) Terry has also made some comments about the recent government shutdown that have given him a poor public image.
3rd: Adrian Smith (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

Nevada

1st: Dina Titus (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

2nd: Mark Amodei (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

3rd: Joe Heck (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

4th: Steven Horsford (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

New Hampshire:

1st: Frank Gunita (R) - Tossup election: In the 2010 election Gunita took the house seat from current incumbent Carol Shea Porter. Porter than took the seat back in the 2012 election.In the 2012 there was a Libretarian canidate, Brandan Kelly, whom received 4.2% of the vote. (2) With no third-party competitors and the declining approval rating of President Obama (3), Guinta seems to be the winner.

2nd: Ann Kuster (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

New Jersey:

1st: Donald Norcross (D) - Safe Democrat District (Has had a Democrat Rep. since the 70’s)

2nd: Frank LoBiondo (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

3rd: Tom MacArthur (R) - Safe Republican District

4th: Chris Smith (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

5th: Scott Garrett (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

6th: Frank Pallone (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

7th: Leonard Lance (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

8th: Albio Sires (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

9th: Bill Pascrell (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

10th: Donald Payne (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

11th: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

12th: Bonnie Watson Coleman (D) - Safe Democrat District

New Mexico:

1st: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

2nd: Steve Pearce (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

3rd: Ben R. Luján (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

New York:

1st: Timothy H. Bishop (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

2nd: Peter King (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

3rd: Steve Israel (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

4th: Kathleen Rice (D) - Safe Democrat District

5th: Gregory W. Meeks (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent / Running Unopposed)

6th: Grace Meng (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent / Running Unopposed)

7th: Nydia M. Velazquez (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

8th: Hakeem Jeffries (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

9th: Yvette D. Clarke (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

10th: Jerrold Nadler (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

11th: Michael Grimm (R) -- Tossup Election: Grimm has come close to losing his seat in both 2010 and 2012, winning by 49.5% in 2010 and 48% in 2012. (4) However polls shows that Grimm has the advantage. (5)

12th: Carolyn B. Maloney (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

13th: Charles B Rangel (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

14th: Joseph Crowley (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

15th: Jose E. Serrano (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

16th: Eliot Engel (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent / Running Unopposed)

17th: Nita M. Lowey (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

18th: Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

19th: Chris Gibson (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

20th: Paul Tonko (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

21st: Aaron Woolf (D) - Safe Democrat District

22nd: Richard Hanna (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent / Running Unopposed)

23rd: Tom Reed (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

24th: Dan Maffei (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

25th: Louise M. Slaughter (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

26th: Brian M. Higgins (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

27th: Chris Collins (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

North Carolina:

1st: G. K. Butterfield (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

2nd: Renee Elmers (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

3rd: Walter B. Jones Jr. (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

4th: David Price (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

5th: Virginia Foxx (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

6th: Mark Walker (R) - Safe Republican District

7th: David Rouzer (R) - Safe Republican District (The Democrats are going to lose this district)

8th: Richard Hudson (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

9th: Robert Pittenger (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent / Running Unopposed)

10th: Patrick McHenry (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

11th: Mark R. Meadows (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

12th: Alma Adams (D) - Safe Democrat District

13th: George Holding (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

North Dakota:

At-Large: Kevin Cramer (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)   

Ohio:

1st: Steve Chabot (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

2nd: Brad Wenstrup (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

3rd: Joyce Beatty (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

4th: Jim Jordan (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

5th: Bob Latta (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)
6th: Bill Johnson (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

7th: Bob Gibbs (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent / Running unopposed)

8th: John Boehner (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent / Speaker of the House)

9th: Marcy Kaptur (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

10th: Mike Turner (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

11th: Marcia Fudge (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

12th: Pat Tiberi (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

13th: Tim Ryan (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

14th: David Joyce (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

15th: Steve Stivers (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

16th: Jim Renacci (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

Oklahoma:

1st: Jim Bredenstine (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent / Running unopposed)

2nd: Markwayne Mullin (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

3rd: Frank Lucas (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

4th: Tom Cole (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

5th: Steve Russel (R) - Safe Republican District

Oregon:

1st: Suzanne Bonamici (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

2nd: Greg Walden (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

3rd: Earl Blumenauer (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

4th: Peter Defazio (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

5th: Kurt Schrader (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

Pennsylvania:

1st: Robert Brady (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

2nd: Chaka Fattah (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

3rd: Mike Kelly (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

4th: Scott Perry (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

5th: Glenn Thompson (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

6th: Ryan Costello (R) - Safe Republican District

7th: Patrick Meehan (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

8th: Michael Fitzpatrick (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

9th: Bill Shuster (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

10th: Tom Marino (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

11th: Lou Barletta (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

12th: Keith Rothfus (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

13th: Brendan Boyle (D) - Safe Democrat District

14th: Michael F. Doyle (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent / Running Unopposed)

15th: Charles Dent (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent / Running Unopposed)

16th: Joseph Pitts (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent)

17th: Matthew Cartwright (D) - Safe Democrat District (Incumbent)

18th: Tim Murphy (R) - Safe Republican District (Incumbent / Running Unopposed)

Politico. “2014 House Race Ratings” Updated October 23, 2014. Accessed October 23, 2014.

Rollcall. “2014 Election Race Ratings.” Updated October 23, 2014. Accessed October

25, 2014.

Rollcall. “New Poll Shows Lee Terry Still Trailing” October 28, 2014. Accessed October 25, 2014. (1)

Ballotpedia. “New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District”. Updated October 19, 2014. Accessed October 25, 2014. (2)

Gallup. “Presidential Approval Ratings-- President Obama”. Accessed October 25, 2014. (3)

Ballotpedia. “New York’s 11th Congressional District, 2012”. Updated October 19, 2014. Accessed October 25, 2014. (4)

Ballotpedia. “New York’s 11th Congressional District, 2014”. Updated November 3, 2014. Accessed November 3, 2014. (5)