Underline= incumbent candidate
[Relatively] Undisputed Races:
Minnesota—
Mike McFadden (R) vs.
Al Franken (D). Al Franken is going to win the senate election
because he currently holds a 10 point lead over McFadden. Minnesota is a
historically Democratic state and will remain so in this election.
"Election 2014 - Minnesota
Senate - McFadden vs. Franken." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 3,
2014.
Illinois
— Jim Oberweis (R) vs. Dick Durban (D). Dick Durbin is going to win
Illinois because his opponent has never been closer than 10 points behind him.
His lead will remain strong enough to beat Oberweis in Illinois.
"Election
2014 - Illinois Senate - Oberweis vs. Durbin." RealClearPolitics -.
Accessed November 3, 2014.
New Jersey—Jeff Bell (R) vs. Corey
Booker (D). Booker will win NJ,
he has held at least a 10 point lead over Bell, currently presiding over a 15
point lead. NJ is a Democratic leaning state and will remain so.
"Election 2014 - New Jersey
Senate - Bell vs. Booker." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 3, 2014.
New Mexico—Allen Weh (R) vs. Tom
Udall (D). Udall is currently up
12 points in the polls, and although Real Clear Politics ranks this race on the
watch list, I think this race is pretty clearly leaning towards Udall. Udall is
above 10% and heavily favored to win. He will maintain this lead.
"Election 2014 - New Mexico
Senate - Weh vs. Udall." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 3, 2014.
Mississippi—Thad Cochran (R) vs.
Travis Childers (D).
Thad Cochran defeated his first opponent in 1984 and since
than he has won every re-election. Mississippians love Cochran and he has a 16
point lead. However, in a state with an incumbent of some 30 years, a 16 point
lead is marginally small. Childers has been fairly successful at creating and
maintaining an image of a very, very, moderate a democrat (a democrat moderate
enough to represent a red state). Although it may appear that the relatively
slim margins for an incumbent reflect that Missisipi is seeking a new face, I
think that Cochran’s 16 point lead is easily strong enough to maintain itself
until Tuesday.
Hampton, Paul. "The Sun Herald." With Conventional Wisdom on Vacation, Anything's Possible in Mississippi's Senate Race. Accessed November 3, 2014.
"Election 2014 - Mississippi
Senate - Cochran vs. Childers." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 3,
2014.
West Virginia—
Shelley Moore Capito (R) vs. Natalie Tennant (D). Moore
Capito is going to win West Virginia because West Virginia is a state
characterized by Ballotopedia as becoming “increasingly conservative.” Capito
currently holds a 22 point lead.
"United States Senate Elections
in West Virginia, 2014." - Ballotpedia. Accessed November 3, 2014.
Delaware— Kevin
Wade (R) vs. Chris Coons (D). Coons commands a 20 point lead in the polls. Coons
is the incumbent candidate and Delaware is a historically democratic race, and
will win the state.
"Election 2014 - Delaware Senate
- Wade vs. Coons." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 3, 2014.
Idaho—Jim Risch (R) vs. Nels Mitchell (D). Risch,
the incumbent candidate, commands nearly a 25-point lead. I think Risch will
win-- Risch's odds for the
current election are looking resoundingly, but not shockingly, strong in a
state that strongly back Republicans (no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Idaho since 1974, and a Democrat has been elected only once to the House since 1992).
"United
States Senate Elections in Idaho, 2014." - Ballotpedia. Accessed November
3, 2014.
"Election 2014 - Idaho Senate -
Risch vs. Mitchell." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 3, 2014.
Montana—Steve Daines (R) vs. Amanda
Curtis (D). On average, Daines has commanded around a 20 point lead over
Curtis. Real Clear Politics writes: “The Montana Senate race is simultaneously the subject of massive
changes and overwhelming stability.” For, the incumbent senator, John Walsh,
dropped his reelection bid in the midst of a plagiarism scandal. Thus, Daines
instead faces Amanda Curtis. Curtis is a “fresh face” but her strongly left
wing views, which are publicly and openly available on her YouTube account will
likely cause her trouble in right wing Montana. Daines will maintain his lead
and win over Amanda Curtis.
"Election 2014 - Montana Senate
- Daines vs. Curtis." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 3, 2014.
South Carolina—Lindsey Graham (R) vs. Brad Hutto (D). Graham holds a 15% lead in the
polls. Graham has raised a massive $10,598,104 for
this race, in comparison to Hutto’s mere $474,770 in comparison. This discrepancy in fundraising leads me to believe that Graham
will maintain this lead until the elections in November.
"South
Carolina Senate Race." Opensecrets RSS. Accessed November 02, 2014.
Special Election—South Carolina— Tim Scott (R)
vs. Joyce Dickerson (D). In January 2013, Sen. DeMint resigned to
head the Heritage Foundation. Governor Hayley appointed Tim Scott to serve the first two years of DeMint's term, and
on November 4, 2014, the voters of South Carolina will elect a candidate for
the remaining two years. Scott currently holds a 20 point lead over
Dickerson. Governor Haley is projected to keep her spot in the governor’s
mansion, as she holds a 16 point lead in the polls and is well over the crucial
50% mark. The approval of the governor who appointed Scott will help him
maintain his seat for the rest of the term.
"Election 2014 - South Carolina Governor - Haley vs. Sheheen." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 02, 2014.
"United States Senate Special Election in
South Carolina, 2014." - Ballotpedia. Accessed November 02, 2014.
Texas—John Cornyn (R) vs.
David Alameel (D). Cornyn commands a 22%
lead over Alameel. Republicans
have controlled the governorship for 20 straight years, and both Senate seats
for 21. Republicans will continue to control Texas and Cornyn will maintain his
lead.
"Election 2014 - Texas Senate - Cornyn vs.
Alameel." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 02, 2014.
Wyoming—Mike Enzi (R) vs. Charlie Hardy (D). Enzi holds a 38% lead over
Hardy. That would be an extremely tough margin to beat. Enzi will win this
seat.
"Election 2014 - Wyoming Senate - Enzi vs.
Hardy." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 02, 2014.
Senate
Races That Are Up For Grabs- It’s All About
Turn Out.
In this year’s most disputed
Senate races, it’s all about turn out. When the margin in the polls is small,
the race becomes dependent upon who shows up on election day. This year, there
are some common themes.
·
OBAMA?
o
Republicans are
motivated by a distaste for Obama to come out and win that ever-important
Republican majority
o
Even Democrats are
dissatisfied with the job Obama is doing. As of October 26th, Gallup
rates Obama with a 40% approval rate. How
will the other 60% vote? Will they vote?
·
CONNECTION
o
Connection with the people—whichever candidate connects with the voters most
effectively, will sustain a larger turn out, and gain the margin they need to
win.
New Hampshire—Scott Brown (R) vs. Jeanne
Shaheen (D). The race between Scott Brown and incumbent Jeanne
Shaheen is shockingly close. While most incumbents usually win reelection with
moderate ease, Shaheen currently holds barely a two-point lead over Brown. Brown characterizes Shaheen has being too in
touch with the whims of the executive branch (most notably the president) and
perhaps not in touch enough with the people of the state. Brown speaks about
Shaheen: “Everyone in New Hampshire
here was excited when she got elected and said she’d be an independent voice
for New Hampshire. Unfortunately when she went to Washington she changed. She’s
voting with the president 99 percent of the time and that’s not good for New
Hampshire.” However, Shaheen can easily use a similar jibe against
Brown. Shaheen reminds voters that Brown has been a senator in a different
state, and has had a variety of other political ambitions and allegiances.
Shaheen says: “He thought about
running for the Senate again in Massachusetts, then he though about running for
governor in Massachusetts. Then he went to Iowa and said he was thinking about
running for president. Well, I don’t think New Hampshire is a consolation
prize.” Both can be argued as out of touch with the people of the state, so it
truly comes down to who decides to come out to vote. Although Brown is a fresh face, I think that
Shaheen’s incumbency will help to give voters the motivation to come out to
vote for her, and giver her the win. A familiarly out of touch candidate is
better than an new, unknown, breed of “out of touch.”
"Election 2014 - New Hampshire Senate - Brown
vs. Shaheen." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 02, 2014.
O'Dowd, Peter. "In New Hampshire, Race For
Senate Narrows." Here Now RSS. Accessed November 02, 2014.
Kansas—Pat Roberts (R) vs.
Greg Orman (I). Currently, Greg Orman has a
1 point edge over Pat Roberts. Kansas is a historically Republican state, so
the question becomes why is an independent holding a lead (although a very,
very, slim one) in the polls? It can be speculated that Orman assumed all of
the Democratic votes lost when Dem. Chad Taylor dropped the race in September.
In addition, Orman holds claim to all of the possible independent votes.
However, in this race, more than any other it all comes down to turnout.
Democrats may not turn out to vote because they may not be as motivated to take
the time to vote for an independent candidate. However, it can be argued that
because this race is so close, both parties will be ultra-motivated to make it
to the polls, as the outcome of this race could very well define which party
controls the senate. The Real Clear Politics average for Iowan Obama job
approval is about 60%. This distaste for Obama will motivate Republican voters
to vote to gain control of senate. Pat Roberts will win and Kansas will not
become an independent state.
Blanton, Dana. "Fox News Poll: 1-point Margin
in Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina Senate Races." Fox News. November 01,
2014. Accessed November 02, 2014.
"Election Approval Rating - President Obama
Job Approval in Kansas." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 02, 2014.
"Election 2014 - Kansas Senate - Roberts vs.
Orman." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 02, 2014.
Kentucky— Mitch McConnel (R) vs. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D). Although the race is very close in the polls, McConnel will win
because of Kentucky’s history of disapproval of Obama (60 % of residents
currently “approve” of Obama, according to the Huffington Post). In a year in
which Obama's unpopularity has been used by Republicans across the country to
bludgeon Democratic senators, Kentucky seems like the last place the party
would have a chance to pick off a Republican incumbent, let alone the party's
Senate leader. Nonetheless, much like the race in Kansas, a close race like
this relies heavily on turn out, as both candidates remain under the
all-important 50% mark. However, Real Clear Politics states that “National Democrats seem to be pulling the
plug on Grimes' campaign. The fundamentals of the state are just too much for
her to overcome.” Democrats would have to accomplish incredible turn out to
have the pull in Kentucky to overcome a Republican incumbent.
"Kentucky: Obama Job Approval - Polls -
HuffPost Pollster." The Huffington Post. Accessed November 02, 2014.
"Election 2014 - Kentucky Senate - McConnell
vs. Grimes." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 02, 2014.
Iowa—Joni Ernst (R) vs. Bruce Braley (D). The race has been consistently
pretty tight from the start although Braley initially commanded a lead, but
Ernst currently commands a narrow 2 point lead, according to a Real Clear
Politics average. Again, because Ernst holds such a thin lead, anything could
happen, depending on who shows up to vote. In Iowa, it seems to have all come
down to connects the most effectively with voters. However, another poll, a new
“Des Moines Register Poll,” states that Ernst holds a 7 point lead over Braley,
and has moved above the critical 50% threshold: “the poll shows Iowans think
Ernst better represents their values” (Seitz-Wald). This is unsurprising due to
Braley’s characterization throughout the campaign as being out of touch with
Iowa farmers and common people. So, perhaps Ernst has connected with the voters
enough to command the turn out necessary to win this state.
"Election 2014 - Iowa Senate - Ernst vs.
Braley." RealClearPolitics -. Accessed November 02, 2014.
Seitz-Wald, Alex. "Iowa Senate Race Slipping
Away from Democrats." Msnbc.com. November 01, 2014. Accessed November 02,
2014.
Our Predictions...Condensed:
STATE
|
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE
|
DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE |
PREDICTION
|
Minnesota
|
Mike McFadden
|
Al Franken
|
Al Franken
|
Illinois
|
Jim Oberweis
|
Dick Durban
|
Dick Durban
|
New Jersey
|
Jeff Bell
|
Corey Booker
|
Corey Booker
|
New Mexico
|
Allen Weh
|
Tom Udall
|
Tom Udall
|
Mississippi
|
Thad Cochran
|
Travis Childers
|
Thad Cochran
|
West Virginia
|
Shelley Moore- Capito
|
Natalie Tennant
|
Shelley Moore-Capito
|
Delaware
|
Kevin Wade
|
Chris Coons
|
Chris Coons
|
Idaho
|
Jim Risch
|
Nels Mitchell
|
Jim Risch
|
Montana
|
Steve Daines
|
Amanda Curtis
|
Steve Daines
|
South Carolina
|
Lindsey Graham
|
Brad Hutto
|
Lindsey Graham
|
South Carolina
(Special Election)
|
Tim Scott
|
Joyce Dickerson
|
Tim Scott
|
Texas
|
John
Cornyn
|
David Alameel
|
John Cornyn
|
Wyoming
|
Mike Enzi
|
Charlie Hardy
|
Mike Enzi
|
New Hampshire
|
Scott Brown
|
Jeanne Shaheen
|
Jeanne Shaheen
|
Kansas
|
Pat Roberts
|
Greg Orman (INDEPENDENT)
|
Pat Roberts
|
Kentucky
|
Mitch McConnel
|
Alison Lundgergan-Grimes
|
Mitch McConnel
|
Iowa
|
Joni Ernst
|
Bruce Braley
|
Joni Ernst
|
That’s 6 democrats to 11 Republicans. If our predictions are
correct, then the GOP has a pretty good chance at winning control of the
Senate.
What does that mean?
o
If they do their job well, will it be more
likely that a Republican will win the 2016 presidential election?
o
Can we say goodbye to Obamacare?
o
How will a Republican congress affect foreign
policy? (Defense Appropriations Bill)
o
Will there be changes in immigration
legislation?
If Republicans win, they are only winning by a slim margin,
so how much can and will things really change?
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
BY: Will Delaney and Emily Morton
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