The results are in and the Republicans swept elections
across the boards. Our nation now faces a conservative unified House and
Senate, along with many state legislatures also being controlled by the red
party. Almost every state called in our 16 projections “Election Day Is Upon
Us, and Here Are 16 Projections” with the exception of two races. The race in
North Carolina was a close one, and we actually predicted it wrong. Moreover,
in Virginia we were expecting a clear, decisive win from Warner on Tuesday night.
Instead we ended up seeing the election come down to a handful of votes and
actually need a recount in order to confirm who would represent the state in
the Senate.
The big question that has been in the Virginia press is “how
could polls have been so wrong?”
There are a couple of theories that seem to point at core problems in our
democratic system. Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight notes that this year’s
Virginia election turnout was not only lower compared to other competitive
Senate races across the nation, but was historically low for the state itself.
The 2014 voter turnout in Virginia was lower than both the 2006 turnout, which
focused on a highly competitive Senate race, and even the 2010 elections, which
hosted no gubernatorial or Senate race[i].
Philip Bump of the Washington Post makes a point to note that the voter turnout
drop-off was not uniform, but rather significantly steeper in traditionally
Democratic counties[ii].
Doug Mataconis of the Christian Science Monitor offers up his own theory[iii].
He thinks that the polls may actually be the reason for the photo-finish style
of this race. The theory goes that the media, a cornerstone of politics with a
massive level of influence, takes a race that is sitting at an 11-point spread,
and reports it as safe or non-competitive. The voters who supported Warner, but
were overall dissatisfied with the Democratic national performance would then
vote symbolically for Gillespie, or simply perceive that Warner no longer
needed the vote. Gillespie’s campaign emphasized how much they needed each
supporter to go to the polls and vote, and the end result was the 2014 Virginia
Senate race.
So what does the near Republican win in Virginia’s Senate
race mean in terms of the political health and direction of this country?
First, Mataconis notes that this race is another in a recent trend for
Democrats, who are declared safe in the polls but pull out narrow victories on
election night. It highlights the importance of civic duty and the responsibility
of citizens who want to have their voice heard to go out and vote. If you don’t
vote, you can’t complain, because a handful of votes can change an election.
Second, the overall direction this nation has taken is admittedly expected at
this point in a President’s stay in office. After 6 years approval ratings general
decline and the nation tends to vote for the opposite party for the lower
ranking government positions. Though it does not always result in a unification
of the House and Senate, this time it did. Republican dominance in these bodies
as well as state legislatures may possibly result in more legislation being
passed through office effectively. It also allows for citizens to have a voice
in their most local level of legislation and be represented in the laws under
which their local community is. That is the intent of federalism and the 50
states that compose this country. Finally, our predications, though mostly
accurate, calling 15 out of 16 properly (we noted that Lousiana would most
likely go into a runoff and still expect it to end with Cassidy being the
Senator), highlight the lack of political involvement of the nation. It is
constantly emphasized that America has some of the least-engaged voters, and
the races we followed showed the impact that can potentially have on a nation.
It is our responsibility as American citizens to take part in our government,
and hopefully the education and political atmosphere the future generations receive
and live in will encourage them to take part in that.
[i] Silver,
Nate. "Why Polls Missed A Shocker In Virginia's Senate Race"
FiveThirtyEight Politics. Novermber 6, 2014. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mark-warner-why-polls-missed-a-shocker-in-virginias-senate-race/
[ii] Bump,
Philip. Why Mark Warner's race turned into a nail-biter" The Washington
Post. Novermber 6, 2014. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/11/06/why-mark-warners-race-turned-into-a-nail-biter/
[iii] Mataconis,
Doug. "Election 2014: What )in the world) happened in Virginia?" The
Christian Science Monitor. Novermber 7, 2014.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Voices/2014/1107/Election-2014-What-in-the-world-happened-in-Virginia
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