Election Day Is Upon Us, and Here Are 16 Projections

America is founded on the principle of the public being able to have its voice heard by government through representatives voted into office. Tomorrow voters will go to the booths and express on their ballot who they believe will carry their values into office and turn them into legislation that governs our nation. Thirty-three senatorial seats and all 435 congressional seats will be determined in the 2014 election. It is projected that there will be a shift to a Republican majority in the US Senate and that Republicans will gain anywhere from six to 10 seats in the US House majorityⁱ. In this post we will give predictions of sixteen senatorial elections and focus on four that stand out as tight or politically interesting races.

One of the most intriguing political races in the nation is going on in Louisiana. This race isn't only interesting because it is close, but rather gets more headlines because of the system of voting for the senatorial race in the state. There are no primary elections for Louisiana in order to run for office. Ultimately that means in order for a candidate to actually win the senate seat, they must gain over 50% of the vote, otherwise a run-off election will be held in December against the two leading candidates. Currently, U.S. Representative Bill Cassidy (R) leads the polls by just over 4.5 points. He is challenging the incumbent, Mary Landrieu (D). Landrieu has outspent her challenger by nearly double in her campaign efforts and right now is hoping tomorrows results only prolong her campaign into Decemberⁱⁱ. Democratic Party officials are prepared to mobilize campaign operatives to Louisiana for the final bout over the next monthⁱⁱⁱ.

Though the race itself is close, Cassidy has managed to stay consistently slightly ahead over the last couple weeks in the polls. His campaign strategy has been to tie Landrieu to a lot of the negatively-received policies of the President, such as Obamacare. He has been campaigning hard on painting a negative picture of the incumbent by bashing her missteps on Social Security and prides himself on a conservative reform for the state. The public seems to be hearing his message loud and clear leading into election day, and with his slight lead we can call this for him. The question still remains, will Cassidy have enough to win the seat this month. Poll data on Real Clear Politics ranges from 46 - 51% of the vote^iv. The polls still tend to hold favor of Cassidy when evaluating the runoff, so regardless this state should flip to GOP control.

Currently in Tennessee Lamar Alexander is in the lead by 18 points in the polls, seeking his third term in office. Interestingly, he is the only Tennessee official ever elected as both governor and U.S. senator^v. He beat out Tea Party candidate Joe Carr in the primary elections, and the final tally showed that he won by 49.7 percent while Joe Carr earned only 40.5 of the vote^vi. This marks a significant loss for the Tea Party. Some of the biggest issues he stands for include enacting some of the toughest illegal immigration in the country, and working to make Tennessee the 4th most business friendly state in the nation.

The series of establishment candidate wins have bolstered Republican hopes of seizing the Senate majority in a year when they have no margin for error. What makes this race particularly interesting is how significantly Alexander triumphed over his opponent, especially considering that Tennessee tends to be one of the most heavily Tea-Party states in the country. His biggest advantages in winning can arguably boil down to having more money, much stronger name recognition, sharp campaigning skills, and the benefits or running a very red state.

In Georgia we are looking at one of the most closely contested senatorial races in the nation. This three-way bout has no incumbent running as Saxby Chambliss (R) is retiring after his term is over. Currently, Republican nominee David Perdue holds a slim lead over Michelle Nunn (D) according to the Election Projection polls^vii. The same polls have Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford syphoning around 1% of the votes away from the two leading candidates. Real Clear Politics, gathering and averaging data from many different polls gives Perdue a slightly larger lead at 3.2 points ahead of Nunn^viii. Much like Louisiana, Georgia holds runoffs if a candidate does not gain over 50% of the vote. In Georgia this seems more likely than in any other state, as no poll has had any candidate at over 48 points (with the exception of 1 by WSB-TV). Moreover, Fivethirtyeight projects Swafford to actually get 4.7% of the actual vote, almost guaranteeing a runoff for this state^ix. Neither of the major party candidates has much experience, so they cannot rely on much advantage there. Nunn is the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, and Perdue is the cousin of former Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue. This means more focus goes onto the candidates' campaigns rather than there actual experience or incumbency advantages.

When we take a closer look at their campaigns we can get an idea as to why Perdue seems to be pulling ahead as election day approaches. Perdue has stressed his historical success in job creation, and in Sunday's senatorial debate he holistically outperformed Nunn^x. Some analysts are saying his performance may actually put Perdue over the 50% mark he needs to cross in order to solidify his seat tomorrow. In a state where Obama has low approval ratings at 45% (according to Gallup^xi), Perdue has focused heavily on tying Nunn to the President. His strategies seem to be paying off as he has noticeably increased his marginal lead over the last week and a half. Moreover, Perdue can fall back on a party that was well-liked in its Senate seat the previous term, and promise to represent the same ideals. Nunn's lack of ability to close strong in her campaign seems to lead to a projection for the Senate seat in Georgia to go to the GOP.

Massachusetts on the other hand, is a different story entirely. Democrat Ed Markey was initially put in his position to fill the seat John Kerry occupied. He defeated businessman and retired Navy Seal Gabriel Gomez 55 percent to 45 percent. Markey must now run for a full term in November of 2014, and the odds heavily favor the newly minted incumbent^xii. However, no first tier Republican candidate has come forward, meaning that Markey will only get nominal opposition on his path to a full six-year term.

The fact that he is in one of the bluest states in the country undoubtedly helped him in his campaign, as he continues to leads the polls over Republican candidate Brian Herr by 23 points. Ed Markey is a passionate campaigner for LGBT^xiii and women’s rights, and has an overwhelmingly liberal campaign on a variety of issues. He is a prolific legislator and has a proven record of working in a bipartisan manner.

With the more closely contested races covered, here are the rest of the predictions for our assigned states based on polls from Real Clear Politics and Election Projection.

1. South Dakota - We can probably safely call South Dakota for Republican nominee Mike Rounds. He is the former Governor of South Dakota and has a 10 point lead in the polls over Rick Weiland (D).
   
2. Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) is the incumbent seeking a 6th term reelection over Secretary of State Allison Grimes (D). McConnell leads the polls by a slim 4.5 points. Though there is still some contest, this race will most likely go to McConnell.
   
3. Michigan - With Incumbent Carl Levin (D) retiring, the senate seat was up for grabs. Terri Lynn Land (R), former Michigan Secretary of State trails the polls just over 10% to U.S. Representative Gary Peters (D). This race seems like a done deal for soon-to-be Senator Peters.
   
4. Arkansas - Yet another close race, being called a tossup by Real Clear Politics. Incumbent Mark Pryor (D) was leading polls until July, but now has slipped to almost 5 points behind U.S. Representative Tom Cotton (R). This will appear to be yet another seat the GOP will pick up this election by a slim margin.
   
5. Colorado - In one of the tighter senatorial races, Freshman Senator Mark Udall (D) will seek his first reelection, but has been unable to stay consistently ahead in the race. With Election Projection's polls having the race flip flop, and Real Clear Politics' polls showing U.S. Representative Cory Gardner (R) consistently (marginally) ahead, this one may really be too close to call. As it sits now, Gardner leads by only 3.2% in the polls. This will come down to whoever can mobilize the most voters on Tuesday, but for now, let's call it for Gardner.
   
6. North Carolina - A similar situation to that in Georgia is playing out in NC, however the independent candidate Sean Haugh isn't gaining enough support to completely deadlock the election. Republican nominee Tom Tillis is trailing ever so slightly behind incumbent Kay Hagan (D), giving her about a 1 point lead in the polls. Though nothing is set in stone, on election day it seems that more voters will be behind her to go out and vote, and the Democrats will salvage this seat in the heated battle.
   
7. Oregon - Here the incumbent Jeff Merkley (D) has a 17 point advantage in the polls over Republican nominee Monica Wehby. This race was never really close, and Wehby never claimed a lead.
   
8. Virginia - Though the spread has decreased in recent weeks, Virginia shows a similar trend to that of Oregon. Incumbent Mark Warner (D) currently holds an 11 point lead in the polls over nominee Ed Gillespie (R). This hold has been present since the start of the race, clearly being an incumbent gets your name out and the votes in.
   
9. Maine - Here there is a blowout by the Republican incumbent Susan Collins who is currently leading in the polls by over 29 points. She faced no opposition except for write-ins in the primary election. The Democratic nominee is Shenna Bellows.
10. Alabama - Jess Sessions (R) is running unopposed and is seeking a fourth term.
11. Nebraska - With two new nominees here after incumbent Mike Johanns (R) retiring after his first term, this had the potential to be a close race. Unfortunately it wasn't as the state tends to go republican and GOP nominee Ben Sasse has the party advantage of incumbency over Dave Domina (D). Sasse leads the polls by 23 points.
    
12. Oklahoma - The incumbent seeking his fourth full term is Republican James Inhofe. He leads the polls against Matt Silverstein (D) by 30 points. This can be attributed to incumbent advantage.
    

Election day is tomorrow, and the nation will be following closely. Races to pay attention to from this post that weren't highlighted include the Colorado Senate election, the Senate election in North Carolina, and Kentucky's Senatorial election. The President's decreasing approval rating has given the Republican party a lot of support this election cycle to bolster themselves. It is important to note that many of their candidates are platforming on a more moderate platform, distancing themselves from the more extreme views the media portrays in relation to the party. Regardless, the GOP is expected to unify and increase its control of the House and Senate, but the closer elections will determine to what degree.

i Blumenthal, Mark. "U.S. House Polls Forecast Republican Gains" Huffington Post. November 3, 2014. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/03/house-polls-2014_n_6084524.html

ii Center for Responsive Politics. "Summary Data 2014 Race: Louisiana Senate" OpenSecrets. 2014. https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=LAS1&cycle=2014

iii Robertson, Campbell. "Senate Control May Be Decided by Runoff Votes in Louisiana and Georgia" November 2, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/us/senate-control-may-be-decided-by-runoff-votes-in-louisiana-and-georgia.html?_r=0

iv Real Clear Politics. "Lousiana Senate - Cassidy vs. Landrieu" Real Clear Politics. November 2014. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/la/louisiana_senate_cassidy_vs_landrieu-3670.html

v Alexander, Lamar. "United States Senator Lamar Alexander." United States Senator Lamar Alexander. Dirksen Office Building, n.d. Web. 31 Oct. 2014.

vi Spiering, Charlie. "Lamar Alexander Wins Tennessee Senate Primary."Breitbart News Network. Breibart, 8 July 2014. Web. 31 Oct. 2014.

vii Election Projection. "Georgie Senate Election" Election Projection. November 2014. http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/georgia-senate-election.php

viii Real Clear Politics. "Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn vs. Swafford" Real Clear Politics. November 2, 2014. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ga/georgia_senate_perdue_vs_nunn_vs_swafford-5253.html

ix Enten, Harry. "Senate Update: There's A 70 Percent Chance Georgia Will Go To A Runoff" FiveThirtyEight. October 24, 2014. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-theres-a-70-percent-chance-georgia-will-go-to-a-runoff/

x York, Byron. "In Georgia, Michelle Nunn fadeout dashes Dem hopes, raises chance of outright GOP win" Washington Examiner. Novermber 2, 2014. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/in-georgia-michelle-nunn-fadeout-dashes-dem-hopes-raises-chance-of-outright-gop-win/article/2555616

xi Gallup. "State of the States" 2013. http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx

xii "Massachusetts Senate: Incumbent." Cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report, 19 Mar. 2014. Web. 2 Nov. 2014.

xiii Markey, Ed. "Issues." Ed Markey. Ed Markey For Senate, n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 2014

Co-Authored by Adam Freilich and Lucy Aiken.