Does the rookie have a chance?

Scott Garrett, a tea party republican, is up for re-election in 2014. He is a staunch conservative in every facet of the term, and has been viewed notoriously as “the Invisible Man” due to his perceived lack of willingness to leave office, except when he has to campaign. Roy Cho, a relative unknown at the age of 33, whose first foray into the field of politics is this race, opposes him. Despite coming from the traditionally blue state New Jersey, Garrett, a representative of District 5, a primarily white upper class area, has had no problem gathering the Republican vote in the past, as evidenced by his last 11 years in office. However, Garrett is going to need more than that to defeat the unknown in Cho, as Cho is predicted to have one advantage Garrett does not, and probably never will: the youth vote. (1)On the outside looking in, this does not appear to have the makings of a close race, after all, Garrett is the eleven year defending champion, and Cho is a rookie, but if one looks a little closer, the race becomes a little more compelling.

            Roy Cho’s best opportunity to unseat Garrett comes, in my eyes, from the fact that Cho has the ability to campaign for the youth vote in ways Garrett cannot. Operating under the assumption that, for the most part, young people who vote are either swayable based on issues, or liberal leaning, Cho would seem to have a decided advantage over Garrett. In the past, Scott Garrett has voted against child safety locks on guns, the Voting Rights Act, and originally, to keep up appearance because he voted against Katrina relief, Sandy relief efforts, before he was coerced otherwise. (1,3) These issues tend to be polarizing, splitting the youth from the older generation, the liberals from the conservative, Cho’s supporters from Garrett’s contingent. That he is an unknown can be considered something of an advantage as well for Cho. He might come off as inexperienced, but he has 5 years of experience in business law, and when it comes to politics sometimes the lesser-known evil is the one that is sought out. (4)That he hasn’t voted on any issues yet, major or minor, presents an unknown, one that people might view as bad thing, but also one that might lead people to think that the grass is, in fact greener on the other side, and that a change of pace might be needed. With Garrett, exactly how he will vote is almost guaranteed; he’s been voting consistently for nearly 12 years.

            The biggest boon Garrett has, other than his experience and air of consistency, is his wallet. Scott Garrett is said to have roughly 3 million dollars, both of his and donor’s money, to use for this election, while Cho, to this point, has raised, by comparison, a paltry $ 900,000. (3) This disparity will, without doubt, be a wall Cho must overcome. Although Cho has won the race to get the first advertisement out, that is merely the warm up to the marathon.(2) Garrett too, will have ads, and, maybe more importantly, Garrett will be able to pay for more of them, in more premium time slots. That Cho doesn’t have the funding Garrett does could prove to be a major disadvantage, as, although in theory Cho has the youth vote, it will be useless unless mobilized.

For a race that, logically, shouldn’t be close, Garrett has the money and experience, Roy Cho is staying competitive, and ultimately, that may be all he needs to do to unseat a champion that has stayed stagnant for as long as Garrett has.

Citations

(1)“The Millennial vs. the Dinosaur in CD5.”Blue New Jersey. September 8^th 2014. Accessed September 25^th 2014.

(2)“CD5 Race: Cho, Weinburg lambaste Garrett at Teaneck HQ opening.” Politickernj.com. September 16^th 2014. Accessed September 24^th 2014.

(3)“CD 5 race: Dem Cho first on the air in race against GOP's Garrett” Politickernj.com. September 16^th 2014. Accessed September 25^th 2014.

(4)”About Roy Cho.” roycho.com/about. Accessed September 25^th 2014