The 2014 gubernatorial election in Texas resembles the current status of the state itself: intriguingly diverse.
Three candidates— most notably, Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Wendy Davis, as well as Libertarian Kathie Glass—are running for Ricky Perry’s spot in the Governor’s mansion.
Davis is a state senator whose claim to fame is her 11 hour 2013 filibuster which attempted (unsuccessfully) to block a bill which provided for more restrictive abortion regulations in Texas. This choice, this very publicly and passionately pro-choice choice, demonstrates just how outspoken and zealous Davis is when it comes to causes she believes in. Davis additionally supports, LGBT rights and the legalization of marijuana, not to mention what some might consider “rampant” deficit spending, as well as the implementation of extensively more stringent gun laws in Texas. It would seem logical that Wendy Davis’s fearlessness in outspokenly exhibiting all of her left-leaning political views in a historically republican state would disqualify her from gaining any substantial percentages in the polls. However, Davis currently makes claim to 40% of the vote in the polls.
Conversely, Abbott is a classic Texan Republican candidate: a gun-slinging, immigrant-detesting, anti-abortion, white, Christian cowboy. He vehemently opposes environmental reform (he—with the support of Ricky Perry—prevented the EPA from regulating greenhouse gasses in Texas in 2010). He also supports Rick Perry in his recent immigration decisions, and believes in conservative immigration reform. This cowboy status would lead many to believe that this election will be a swift and easy win within the buckaroo electorate that comprises Texas. However, although a victory for Abbott may be less of a challenge than for his feisty, outspokenly left wing opponent, it won’t be an easy victory in the traditional Texas sense (Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in two decades).
Both Davis and Abbott’s past political choices and current political leanings demonstrate just how different these two candidates are. Neither is moderate in any sense of the word. However, even though Abbott does take the lead currently in the polls, Davis is only trailing by 10% (Abbott claims about 50% while Davis claims about 40% and Glass claims about 10%).
So, the question becomes, how can 40% of a historically largely republican state support an outwardly left, left, left, wing candidate?
A change in demographics will cause a change in the electorate and how the candidates must respond to that electorate. Marice Richter of Reuters News in Dallas explains how this phenomenon is currently affecting political affairs in Texas: “Both parties know the booming Hispanic population in Texas could upend Republican dominance by 2030 when Hispanics, who are Democrat-leaning, become a majority in the state.” Wendy Davis is certainly aware of this demographic change, and her choice to run for Governor this term was not timed accidentally. With each year, as more and more Hispanics flood into Texas, it becomes more and more possible for a candidate like her to take control of the state. She knows that presenting herself as the polar opposite of politicians like Rick Perry and her opponent, Greg Abbott, who are infamous for wanting to keep immigrants (perhaps even these people’s families) out of Texas, will certainly work in her favor in the eyes of the new and swiftly growing Hispanic electorate. Her fervid support of all things liberal, and thus all things NOT Rick Perry and Greg Abbott was not accidental; this political persona dissociates her from being one of the many politicians who are thought to be out to get immigrants and the lower classes. In embodying this, she is appealing to the new majority.
Greg Abbott may seem confident, but he knows what he is up against. Even if he defeats Wendy Davis this term, he knows that close fights like this, between in the new and the old Texas, are the future of Texan politics. In his campaign efforts, Abbott is desperately trying to appeal to the growing Hispanic electorate (without changing any of his policies, which would dissatisfy his original, and strongest constituency base). He showcases his wife Cecelia, who if he is elected, will be the first Latina first lady of Texas. The Republican National Committee is funneling money more than $50,000 a month into Texas, in an attempt to recruit Hispanic voters. Abbott’s campaign is providing Spanish-speaking Hispanic voters with classes in English (while of course, always preaching the sensibilities of limited government) (Weber). Although Abbott is not changing his policy goals (many of which would negatively impact low income Hispanics), it is important to note he is acknowledging the minority. All the while, of course, knowing they won’t be the minority for long.
Regardless of how the gubernatorial race in Texas turns out, the election itself still represents a major change in the state’s politics, and in American politics as a whole. For the first time in American history, a minority is becoming a majority.
So keep an eye on Texas in the next couple years—find out what happens when a minority takes over. Majorities have a voice, and Hispanics are quickly becoming the majority in Texas; it will just be interesting to see if anyone will listen to what they have to say.
"Reuters News - Texas Gubernatorial Candidates Court Hispanic Vote in Debate." Townhall.com. September 20, 2014. Accessed September 25, 2014.
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