Republicans, I Don't Think You Will Win in Kansas Anymore... Or At Least It Will Be More Challenging

When I think of Kansas, I think of two things: The Wizard of Oz and Republicans. The last time the state of Kansas elected a Democratic senator to the United States Congress was the same year that FDR was elected president, but now for the first time in eighty-two years there is a strong possibility that the status quo will change. Three term veteran of the United States Senate Pat Roberts is facing a strong challenge from Independent Greg Orman, who following the Democratic candidate leaving the race has seen huge gains in the polls. In an article titled GOP Sen. Roberts in fight of political career after bizarre twists shake up race, Stephanie McNeal explores how the most exciting race of the 2014 midterm elections could be coming from one of the reddest states in the union.

               McNeal begins her article by addressing how since Democrat Chad Taylor has dropped out of the race without reason in late August that the independent Orman actually has a chance of defeating Roberts in the general election. She backs this up with convincing polling data that shows Orman leading the seventeen year veteran of the Senate by a point as the election draws nearer. I believe this is an obvious example of Taylor taking one for the team, realizing he has no chance of victory, he dropped out of the race in order for a moderate like Orman to have a chance against conservative Roberts in November. Much of the Democratic leadership in Kansas saw the liberal leaning Taylor as an extremely difficult sell to notoriously traditional Kansans and as McNeal notes that Taylor did talk with Democratic Sen. Claire McClaskill of Missouri, most likely concerning McClaskill’s decision to publically support Orman, before making the decision to leave the race. This raises the obvious question of are the Democrats willing to break ranks and support someone not even in their party if it means getting a moderate elected to the Senate from this Republican bastion?

               One may argue that Roberts had to see this coming, as Jessica Tarlov, a senior strategist from Schoen Consulting (who is interviewed in the video clip accompanying this story) states that the senator has only visited his state seven times in the past year and spent his entire August recess in Washington. To me, this is eerily similar to what happened to Eric Cantor and his defeat by Dave Brat, a little known Tea Party candidate who played up the point that Cantor rarely visited his district, but instead seemed perfectly content in Washington. I think what Brat’s victory proved is that no one is safe, even if an incumbent has held their position for decades as Roberts has, they cannot forget the constituents who put them there. Additionally, over the past month alone as Thomas Basile, former executive director of the New York State Republican Party (also interviewed in the accompanying video clip) points out, there has been over one million dollars in ads against Roberts, while Roberts has spent nothing. In Basile’s words, Roberts seem to be “asleep at the wheel” of this campaign, and has not realized until now that he actually has a serious challenger in this race. Thus, with Labor Day passing, people are starting to really pay attention to the race, meaning Roberts will have to reach into his war chest and start retaliating. McNeal also points out that Roberts has replaced his longtime campaign advisor with a senior Republican consultant, which to me at least proves that Roberts realizes the gravity of the situation and is going to campaign tirelessly to regain support and keep his Senate seat. Thus, why do some strategists consider it possible that Roberts has done too little too late, and Orman can ride his popularity through till November?

               Towards the end of her article, McNeal discusses what makes Greg Orman such a viable candidate in Kansas, and what I felt it boiled down to was he was not Pat Roberts. The people of Kansas like the rest of the country are sick of Congress’s gridlock and partisan bickering, and to many Roberts represents that partisanship as his unwillingness to budge on his conservative principles–complemented by his liberal colleagues— has forced Americans to look for candidates who will break this stalemate and to Kansans this moderate has come in the form of Greg Orman. McNeal quotes him, “I am is a fiscally responsible businessman who will work hard to go to Washington and not play party politics.” This quote along with the fact Orman is running as a moderate, and that he is a fresh young face in politics –a stark contrast to the seventy-eight year old Roberts-- encompasses exactly what Washington needs in order to get out of the political standstill that is Congress. Though as Basile said in his interview, unseating an incumbent is extremely difficult, especially one as established as Roberts in Kansas politics, but as the polls show Orman is poised to have one of the biggest upsets in Kansas political history. Thus, a loss for Roberts in November should send a message to every establishment politician that their seats do not have their name on them till the day they die, and they should never put it past their constituents to change the status quo.   

Basile, Thomas and Jessica Tarlov. Interview with Molly Line. America’s Election Headquarters. Fox News, September 11, 2014.

McNeal, Stephanie. "GOP Sen. Roberts in Fight of Political Career after Bizarre Twists Shake up Race." Foxnews.com. September 11, 2014. Accessed September 11, 2014.