Similar Race: Different Outcome

In 2006, Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick, of the 8^th District of Pennsylvania, lost re-election to a young, liberal, Iraqi-War Veteran. And after regaining his seat just two terms later in 2010, Fitzpatrick now enters a race with virtually the same candidates as his loss in 2006. Although Fitzpatrick is yet again running against another young, liberal, Iraqi-War Veteran, this outcome will not be the same.

                When Mike Fitzpatrick lost his re-election campaign by a small margin in 2006, it may have just been because timing was not on his side. In 2006, the Democrats took control of the house as the Republicans lost 27 seats while the Democrats gained 32 (1). While in 2010, it may be possible that he won because this time the luck was on his side. The outcome in this 2010 election, however, seemed to be the complete opposite of the same match up as in 2006 when an extreme wave of conservatism swept through the country and gained 63 Republican seats in The House (2). Now, however, with the playing field somewhat even, it looks as if we have found ourselves to be somewhat stuck. Americans aren't the same as we were in 2006 or even in 2010. Because of the huge change in power during those years, it seemed that Americans voted that way because they had either the Democrats or the Republicans to blame for every single issue. Now, with a complete partisan split in our government, it is difficult for Americans to really point a finger at either political party.

                With a fair fight set up for both parties, it seems as if every Congressional seat should be completely up for grabs. However, even though the race in Pennsylvania’s 8^th Congressional district looks extremely similar to the race that we saw in 2006, the results will be extremely different. Could this be because of the backlash on President Bush in 2006, or possibly because of the redistricting done by the GOP in 2012? Back in 2006, the 8^th Congressional district included the entire County of Bucks, a small part of Montgomery County, and a sliver of Philadelphia. Bucks County is known to normally vote Republican, while Philadelphia stays blue, and Montgomery County normally swings. When Fitzpatrick lost in 2006, that small sliver of Philadelphia included all of the votes that cost him his seat. In 2012, new GOP drawn lines were approved and put into effect. This redistricting has taken that small slice of Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold, out of the 8^th District (3). Now, with a stronger Republican backing in the 8^th district it seems as if the election will be nearly impossible for the newcomer to win.

                One thing that newcomer, Kevin Strouse, does have for him though is his sense of likability. Strouse is an Iraqi-War Veteran and formerly worked for CIA, and that it pretty hard to not like. I mean, he protected our country and that is pretty hard to refute. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick is the incumbent and could potentially be seen as a Washington Insider. But one thing that Fitzpatrick has that this rookie challenger does not is his knowledge of his district and his constituents. Fitzpatrick has a raised of family of six kids right here in our district while Strouse, who was appointed by the National Democratic Party to run in this district, just moved to the district about two years ago. People tend to dislike Washington insiders, but they hate carpetbaggers too. With the election seemingly even on paper, it is going to come down to the same thing that it did in 2006: the demographic. But this time, there is no Philadelphia backing for the Democrats to cover up the lack of support that Strouse will find in Bucks County. This election may look the same as in 2006, but with the redistricting, the results will be nowhere near the same.

(1). "Democrats Retake Congress." CNN. January 1, 2007. Accessed September 25, 2014.

(2). "House Map- Election Results 2010." The New York Times. January 1, 2010. Accessed September 25, 2014.

(3). "Congressional Interactive District Map - Legislative Redistricting." Pennsylvania Redistricting. May 8, 2013. Accessed September 25, 2014.